Money Manners: On Indian Economic Survey 2025-26
India’s Economic Survey 2025–26 flags strong growth but exposes gaps in AI focus and agri-export stability.
India’s Economic Survey 2025–26 reads, at first glance, like a document of reassurance. Growth is projected at around 7.4%, inflation is described as being at historic lows, and the banking system appears better than it has been in years. In a world still unsettled by trade tensions and geopolitical churn, these figures offer comfort, especially to policymakers.
Yet some of the Survey’s quieter details linger longer than the headline numbers. One such detail concerns artificial intelligence. The Survey notes that only about 2% of Indian startups work on AI training data, compared to nearly 40% in the United States. Training data is not a flashy frontier, but it is foundational. Without it, models remain dependent, borrowed, or imported. The gap hints at an ecosystem that has energy and scale, but not yet enough depth in the less visible layers of technological work.
Agriculture, too, occupies a prominent place in the Survey’s ambitions. The government has reiterated its aim of pushing farm exports to $100 billion, a target that reflects confidence in production capacity and global demand. What the numbers cannot capture is the fragility that surrounds farm livelihoods. Export growth depends on consistency — in pricing, procurement, and policy — and farmers have seen too many reversals to take projections at face value.
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Taken together, the Survey sketches an economy that is moving, but unevenly. High growth coexists with narrow innovation bases. Export targets rise alongside persistent uncertainty on the ground. The macro picture is stable, even reassuring, but the micro experience remains cautious.
Economic surveys are not meant to answer every question. They frame direction, signal intent, and measure momentum. What they leave open, year after year, is how quickly intent turns into capacity, and how evenly momentum is shared. The challenge ahead is less about sustaining growth rates and more about ensuring that the structures beneath them are strong enough to last.
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